Talarico topples Paxton, ends Texas Democrats' 38-year Senate drought

A drought ends

Democrat James Talarico defeated Republican Ken Paxton for the open U.S. Senate seat, 55.1% to 43%, with 99% of the expected vote counted, according to Exa's election results page. The margin was 1,195,369 votes, about 12 points.

The Texas Tribune called the result "a political earthquake." The win gives Democrats their first statewide victory in Texas since 1994 and their first U.S. Senate win there since 1988.

Talarico is 37, a four-term state legislator from Austin and a former middle school teacher. He will take the seat held by Sen. John Cornyn, whom Paxton beat in the May primary.

Down the ballot, Democrat Gina Hinojosa unseated Gov. Greg Abbott. Democrats also won the attorney general and comptroller races and the Texas House, according to Ballotpedia.

Record spending

Republicans poured over $280M into advertising in the race, including over $200M from Elon Musk, making it the most expensive U.S. Senate contest on record, the Tribune reported. CBS News separately reported Musk spent more than $150M backing Paxton.

Talarico's response, per CBS: "The people of Texas delivered a crystal-clear message to the world's first trillionaire: Texas is not for sale."

In his victory speech, Talarico said, "We were the underdogs in this race." He added, "This is a win the size of Texas; now we have a mandate the size of Texas," according to the Tribune. On X, he put it more simply: "We just took back Texas."

Paxton concedes

Paxton conceded shortly before 10:30 p.m. local time.

"Let me start off by congratulating James Talarico," Paxton said, adding he would pray for him, the Tribune reported. Cornyn also congratulated Talarico and offered help with the transition.

Why he won

Voters were not buying Paxton, the Tribune reported. In NBC News' exit poll, only 34% of Texas voters viewed Paxton's personal character positively, while 52% viewed Talarico favorably.

Talarico ran on the argument that America's real divide is between the wealthy and everyone else. He spent the summer on TV introducing himself to independents and Cornyn voters. His coattails were long.